Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
